Box office disappointments ‘Lone Ranger,’ ‘White House Down,’ and ‘Pacific Rim’ have industry worried about future of blockbusters

Per the New York Daily News

BY / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

FRIDAY, JULY 19, 2013, 6:20 PM

Crowded field at the multiplex this summer even hurt sure-thing ‘Hangover, Part III’ and threatens to turn ‘R.I.P.D.’ into another box office bust.

AP PROVIDES ACCESS TO THIS PUBLICLY DISTRIBUTED HANDOUT PHOTO PROVIDED BY DISNEY FOR EDITORIAL PURPOSES ONLY.

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How the West Was Lost: Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer in ‘The Lone Ranger,’ a $200 million disappointment.

The heat has been turned up on Hollywood studios this summer.

After several high-profile tentpole movies in a row — “White House Down,” “The Lone Ranger” and “Pacific Rim” — tanked at the box office, industry watchers are nervous that the blockbuster model is nearing a tipping point.

“These are films are fall into formulas that have been successful in other iterations,” says Ira Deutchman, chair of the film program at Columbia University.

“I think that it is a sign that the formula that Hollywood thought was going to always work for them is reaching its limitations.

“Too many studios, too many filmmakers are chasing the same audience with same formula — tons of effects and explosions — and people are getting burned out.”

This summer has also been chock full of movies that critics and moviegoers have agreed are not worth the price of the popcorn.

Take “The Lone Ranger,” a $200 million adaptation of a Western character last relevant in pop culture in the ‘50s from the television series starring Clayton Moore.

“Even before ‘The Lone Ranger’ came out, it’s not exactly like the entire culture has been clamoring for a new ‘Lone Ranger’ movie,” says Robert Thompson, director of Syracuse University’s Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture. “ I’m 54 and Lone Ranger seems stodgy to me . I don’t know that we should draw too many conclusions from these particular failures.”

But what’s particularly damning is that the three straight busts over the past three weeks were all non-sequels, including attempts to start new franchises with “original” stories with “Lone Ranger” and “Pacific Rim.”

“What high profile failures do is chip away at the confidence of studios,” says Paul Dergarabedian, box office analyst for Hollywood.com.

“Every summer people decry the fact that there are too many sequels, when Hollywood tried to go the original route, it came back to bite them.”

Part of the problem is that its been a “traffic jam,” in Dergarabedian’s words, at the multiplex this summer. In May, “The Hangover Part III,” finished a distant second behind “Fast & Furious 6” — a box office battle between two movies that were chasing more or less the same demographic.

Had the R-rated comedy opened on a less crowded weekend, it likely would have enjoyed the same No. 1 bragging rights as the two previous installments in the franchise.

But during the 18-week summer season that kicked off with “Iron Man 3,” there weren’t any open slots. This Friday, Warner Brothers’ scarer “The Conjuring” is opening against Summit’s “Red 2” and Universal’s big budget “R.I.P.D.” — and a fourth major film, the animated feature “Turbo,” debuted two days earlier. There isn’t enough ticket money to go around and the $130 million “R.I.P.D.” looks to be dead on arrival, according to tracking data from Hollywood.com.

“It’s one thing to budget for a blockbuster, it’s another thing to market for it, and its another thing to actually bust the block,” says Thompson. “It’s not science, it’s showbiz.”

Hollywood studios, however, are not likely to panic just yet. Even though “The Lone Ranger” will end up costing Disney a projected $100 to $200 in losses, the studio is still basking in the glow of “The Avengers,” which earned $1.5 billion worldwide last year. “Iron Man 3,” which opened in May, has already added $1.2 billion in global box office to the studio coffers.

“From the first weekend in May through this past Sunday, the box office is at 12.95% ahead of last year.” says Dergarabedian. “That’s the irony in all this, emotionally it feels like this summer is a bust, but on paper its not bad at all.”

Audiences elected to stay away from ‘White House Down,’ starring Channing Tatum.

REINER BAJO

Audiences elected to stay away from ‘White House Down,’ starring Channing Tatum.

‘Pacific Rim’ debuted in third place last weekend with $37.2 million, hardly a monster hit.

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‘Pacific Rim’ debuted in third place last weekend with $37.2 million, hardly a monster hit.

‘The Hangover Part III’ may have been a bigger hit if it hadn't opened up against ‘Fast & Furious 6’ on a crowded Memorial Day Weekend at the multiplex.

COURTESY WARNER BROS. PICTURES/AP

‘The Hangover Part III’ may have been a bigger hit if it hadn’t opened up against ‘Fast & Furious 6’ on a crowded Memorial Day Weekend at the multiplex.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/tv-movies/box-office-failures-blockbuster-model-doubt-article-1.1403987#ixzz2ZbgfxIJH

 

“Pacific Rim,” “The Lone Ranger” and “White House Down” flops are leading studios to re-evaluate their plans as an overcrowded summer schedule leads to millions in losses; one analyst tells THR, “It’s not worth the pain.”

Blockbuster Crisis Graphic - P 2013
The Lone Ranger

“Pacific Rim,” “The Lone Ranger” and “White House Down” flops are leading studios to re-evaluate their plans as an overcrowded summer schedule leads to millions in losses; one analyst tells THR, “It’s not worth the pain.”

This story first appeared in the July 26 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.

At CineEurope, June’s convention of European theater owners in Barcelona, Spain, a top studio executive asked a colleague to snap a photo of him with a costumed Despicable Me 2 minion in the lobby. The executive doesn’t work at Universal, and he’s not the only one envious of that studio’s global blockbuster, one of the season’s few successes as Hollywood endures the most crowded summer in history for tentpoles. The pileup has resulted in an unprecedented string of expensive bombs that collectively will lose hundreds of millions of dollars.

It’s a crisis of Hollywood’s own making: Studios are releasing double the number of pricey movies they usually do during the summer, pushing the boundaries of how much the marketplace can expand. Amid the carnage, insiders question why studios are greenlighting so many films that cost more than $150 million to produce when so few have risen above the clutter.

PHOTOS: Jamie Foxx and Channing Tatum: Exclusive Portraits of the ‘White House Down’ Stars

“There was abnormally bad scheduling this summer by everybody. I don’t think you will see this again for a while — it’s not worth the pain,” says Wall Street analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen and Co. “While studios will still be willing to spend on a good concept, I think they might be a little more circumspect about when they are going to launch that movie.”

Guillermo del Toro‘s Pacific Rim, the latest disappointment, is the third straight high-profile miss after Gore Verbinski’sThe Lone Ranger and Roland Emmerich‘s White House Down. The three megabudget films opened during a two-week period, leaving no wiggle room. Worse, they debuted in the wake of Warner Bros.’ Man of Steel and Paramount’s World War Z, both of which caught on at the global box office and appeal to the same audience. Those films have grossed $619.1 million and $423 million worldwide, respectively.

“The biggest issue is dating,” says one studio head. “You had too many $100 million-plus movies, not to mention $200 million-plus movies, jammed on top of each other. There isn’t enough play time, and the result has been more movies that wipe out.”

Pacific Rim, which cost as much as $200 million to produce — plus a global marketing spend in the $175 million range — could lose $50 million to $100 million for Legendary and Warners, according to rival studio insiders. The pic opened to a soft $37.3 million domestically and $53.1 million from its first 38 foreign markets. While poised to do big business in Asia, Russia and Latin America, its chances are dicey in Europe and Australia. Legendary, which produced the fanboy-friendly film and footed most of the bill, will take the biggest hit.

Lone Ranger, with a production budget of $250 million, is falling off even faster than expected, grossing $71.5 million domestically and $48 million internationally to date for a total of $119.5 million. At those numbers, some Wall Street analysts say Disney could face a write-down of nearly $200 million. Analysts also say, though, that the studio is well insulated by profits from Iron Man 3, the summer’s top earner with $1.21 billion in worldwide grosses, and Monsters University, which has earned $474.2 million worldwide.

STORY: Jerry Bruckheimer’s Disney Future in Question As Moguls Defend His ‘Lone Ranger’

Sony has had two high-profile flops and likely will lose tens of millions from White House Down and Will Smith’s sci-fi epic After EarthWhite House Down, which cost $150 million to produce, has earned a paltry $82.7 million worldwide, and After Earth, which cost $130 million to make, has nearly finished its run with a tepid worldwide gross of $214.8 million (though it is off to a good start in China).

And the carnage might not be over. Universal’s R.I.P.D., starring Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynoldsas otherworldly cops, could fall flat based on prerelease tracking. The movie cost about $130 million to produce.

Ironically, summer box-office revenue in North America is running 13.8 percent ahead of 2012, nearly closing the gap in year-over-year revenue. Several more modestly budgeted movies are helping to fuel the surge, including Summit’s magician heist pic Now You See Me and Fox’s female comedy The Heat, which have earned $185.8 million and $128.4 million worldwide, respectively. Sony’s offbeat comedy This Is the End also has succeeded in serving as counterprogramming to tentpoles, taking in $91.6 million domestically.

May was far less crowded in terms of tentpoles, and it showed. Even in Iron Man 3‘s wake, Warners’The Great Gatsby and Paramount’s Star Trek Into Darkness did good business, grossing $326.9 million and $446.9 million worldwide, respectively.

The deluge began Memorial Day weekend when Universal’s Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III opened opposite each other. Rivals were surprised at the double billing, considering both films needed males to succeed. Fast 6 was the big winner, taking in $704.2 million worldwide. Hangover III, from Warners and Legendary, earned $347 million, far less than the previous films in the trilogy.

“I’ll say one thing: This summer has got to be an exhibitor’s delight,” quips another studio executive. “Imagine being a theater owner and having all these tentpoles in a row. Face it: A theater owner couldn’t care less if the movie drops off a ton.”